This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card at Beijing, China. The tournaments are much smaller on DraftKings this week, therefore I believe that it’s a great week to concentrate more on cash games. The most important GPP is an $8 entry that pays $10K into 1st place. That’s the best one to chase in my opinion. I will have a couple LUs that I placed into a lot of GPPs hoping I can win all of them, but I won’t have lots of LUs in complete this week. Aside from that, almost all of my play this week will probably be in the money games. Mostly H2Hs. With that said, here are a couple of plays I like for UFC Beijing, as well as my fade of the week.
Cash Game play of this week — Song Yadong ($9,100)
I think Song Yadong might be the best drama on the card that weekend and you will find 4 fighters priced greater than him. Yadong is a -500 favored on Saturday and I think that is a struggle the UFC is needing him to triumph in his home country. I think in championships, Yadong will be the highest owned fighter on the card with 3 women fighters priced over him, with substantially smaller odds of winning ITD. I believe that you may create a case to fade him due to his ownership in GPPs, but in money games we do not care about ownership. I think this is a great spot to lock in a win and maybe ~100-points, and then try to find 3 more wins that we are able to afford. More frequently than maybe 4 wins gets the work done in cash games.
GPP drama of the week — Rashad Coulter ($8,400)
This battle has got the 2nd highest FDGTD line on the card in -400. There is also worth on Hu Yaozong with him being $600 cheaper and the betting line being almost even. Usually when there is worth like that within an underdog it makes them among the more popular fighters on the card. I don’t think either of these men are UFC level fighters, but I am a little more impressed by what I have observed from Coulter than the inexperienced Yaozong. I believe getting Coulter in GPP lineups at a lower possession than Yaozong makes sense that weekend in a fight which shouldn’t move all 3-rounds. If either of those men get an early end they will probably be about the winning lineup. I am guessing Coulter are the lower owned man of both and that is what makes him my GPP drama of the week.
Underdog play of this week — Francis Ngannou ($7,500)
There really are not many underdogs I like to target this week to get UFC Beijing. I have not loved creating lineups this week because I hate plugging in two underdogs when I think virtually every favorite will get a win. I think that the best underdog to target this week is Francis Ngannou because he has a very clear path to victory and he’s won in this matchup before. The path to success for Ngannou is by knockout, and he has the power to be able to KO anyone on the planet. If he can find a KO at $7.5k then he probably ends upon the 1st spot lineup, especially if it is an early KO. From the first fight between these two men Blaydes was able to get 2 takedowns, but Ngannou was able to get up fairly quickly each time. If he’s in a position to get up like that here, then I really don’t see any way Blaydes are going to have the cardio to try and wrestle for 5-rounds. I think Ngannou is the scarier man on the toes and I really don’t see Blaydes wanting to attack for long amounts of time. I believe Ngannou is live for an upset here but onto a cardI really don’t enjoy many underdogs I believe he’s the best one to target with his 1st round KO upsidedown. Fade of this week — Lauren Mueller ($9,200)
I truly don’t enjoy targeting at least one of these women in the 9k selection. I think that they should all get wins, but I don’t see any of them getting 10x their wages. For Mueller, she’d want at least 92 DK points to hit 10x and that I think she has to receive a finish to make that occur. Mueller has 5 wins her MMA record and only 1 of those wins did not go to conclusion. She also only scored 72 DK points in her 1 UFC win. If she scores 72 at $9.2k then she won’t be winning anyone a tournament. I also think Zhang and Xiaonan have greater odds of winning compared to Mueller does this that is why I chose her over those two as my fade of this week. I will not be making a great deal of lineups this week however when I was making 20 lineups afterward Mueller would be on among these.
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