NASCAR at Richmond odds, picks 2019: Model says Kyle Larson surprises at Toyota Owners 400

For first time this year, NASCAR will probably be under the lights when the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday in Richmond Raceway. Kyle Busch enters 2019 NASCAR in Richmond as the leader in the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup standings with 361 points. He’s looking for his fourth win of this year and also the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 odds give him a 9-4 chance to receive it starts in fifth position after qualifying. Kevin Harvick had the fastest speed in qualifying at 124.29 MPH, giving him the pole position. His NASCAR at Richmond odds have moved out of 7-1 to 9-2. Martin Truex Jr. (6-1), Joey Logano (8-1) and Brad Keselowski (10-1) are among the other top contenders at this .75-mile brief course. Before bending in any 2019 Toyota Owners 400 selections of your own, first be sure to check out the NASCAR predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Produced by DFS expert and SportsLine predictive data scientist Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 occasions, taking factors like track history and recent results into account.

The model is off to a solid start in NASCAR this season, calling Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin that a top-four contender from the beginning. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top . It also nailed Busch’s enormous win at Bristol last week. Anyone who has followed its selections is far up.

McClure, with a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at iconic venues like Richmond Raceway are in his blood. Now, his version simulated the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 10,000 times and the results were so surprising.

For NASCAR in Richmond 2019, we can tell you that the model is top on Kyle Larson, who makes a strong run at taking the checkered flag despite heading off at 25-1 NASCAR at Richmond odds.

Larson’s average finish at Richmond is 9.7, that’s the third-best among active drivers. He has finished seventh or better in four of the last five events in Richmond and won the Richmond fall race at 2017. He will begin in 14th place after a slightly slower than expected qualifying period of 123.54 MPH. However he posted the fastest lap (121.70 MPH) at the first practice session on Friday, so he has revealed the speed required to climb the NASCAR at Richmond leaderboard on Saturday evening.

Along with a massive shocker: Truex Jr., among the best Vegas favorites at 6-1, does not crack the top five. There are far better worth in a wealthy 2019 NASCAR at Richmond lineup.

The 39-year-old veteran is sitting at seventh in the standings, but he’s tapered off lately. Truex finished 12th at Texas Motor Speedway after which fought last week in Bristol, ending 17th. In his profession, Truex has not fared well at Richmond Raceway either. In fact, he’s finished in the top five only 3 times in 26 career starts at the track.

The version can also be targeting two other motorists using 2019 Toyota Owners 400 odds of 20-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these lengthy shots could hit it big.