Updated to reflect the scratch of jockey and Haikal Change

Considering that the Kentucky Derby in 2013 adopted a points system to qualify for the 20-horse area, chalk has mastered the winner’s team. Justify, Always Dreaming, Nyquist, American Pharoah, California Chrome and Orb were post-time favorites, returning between $6.60 and $12.80 on a $2 win bet — a far cry from enormous payouts of yore, which included I Will Have Another ($32.60 at 2012), Animal Kingdom ($43.80 in 2011), Mine That Bird ($103.20 in 2009) and Giacomo ($102.60 at 2005).
[Everything you Want to know concerning the 2019 Kentucky Derby]
On the flip side, exotic bets such as the trifecta (picking the first three finishers in order) and superfecta (choosing the first four finishers so ) continue to supply betting bonanzas. Last year’s $1 superfecta paid $19,618.20. In 2017 the $1 paid $8,297.20 along with another monster superfecta ($75,974.50).Updated to signify the scrape of Haikal and jockey change on Cutting Humor
Since the Kentucky Derby in 2013 embraced a points system to qualify for the 20-horse field, chalk has mastered the winner’s circle. Justify, Always Dreaming, Nyquist, American Pharoah, California Chrome and Orb were all post-time favorites, returning involving $6.60 and $12.80 on a $2 billion bet — a far cry from enormous payouts of yore, which included I Will Have Another ($32.60 in 2012), Animal Kingdom ($43.80 in 2011), Mine This Bird ($103.20 in 2009) and Giacomo ($102.60 at 2005).
[Everything you Want to know concerning the 2019 Kentucky Derby]
On the flip side, exotic bets like the trifecta (picking the first three finishers in order) and superfecta (choosing the first four finishers in order) continue to supply betting bonanzas. Last year’s $1 superfecta paid $19,618.20. In 2017 the 1 triple paid $8,297.20 along with another monster superfecta ($75,974.50).Isolating the top three or four finishers in a 20-horse field famous for its chaos isn’t simple, but also to getting a good pedigree and a solid base, a horse needs tactical speed to have the ability to keep up with the speed.
Brisnet classified only one horse in the area, Omaha Beach, as a need-to-lead type, or’E’ horse, but he was scratched on Wednesday, leaving 15 horses set to be stalk the first speed (‘EP’ horses) or near it (‘P’ horses) between the initial (half-mile) and second (three-quarters of a mile) calls. Four others are considered sustainers or closers (‘S’) and will make their movement from farther back.
[2019 Kentucky Derby horses, post positions, odds, evaluation and start time]
NEED-TO-LEAD (‘E’) EARLY PRESSER (‘EP’) PRESSER (‘P’) SUSTAINER OR CLOSER (‘S’)
None Maximum Security Improbable Win Win Win
Spinoff Cutting Humor Code of Honor
Roadster By My Standards Country House
Tax Tacitus Master Fencer
Gray Magician
Vekoma
War of Will
Long Range Toddy
Plus Que Parfait
Game Winner
Bodexpress
But, Tuesday’s post position draw will force some horses out of the comfort zone. As an example, Mark Casse, trainer of War of Will (post ranking No. 2) said after the draw that his horse will”likely be on the direct and play catch me if possible.” If he does not visit the front, start looking for Tax, in place No. 3, to”come out running and sit on the railing,” according to Tax’s coach, Danny Gargan. Maximum Security (No. 7) will also likely be up front but, with a scarcity of accurate speedsters from the race, the rate should not be fast enough to hamper Maximum Security’s ability to last 11/4 miles.
Being among the first flight of horses is essential. Over the previous six years every Kentucky Derby winner but one, Orb in 2013, was classified as having a stalking (‘EP’) running style. Half of the horses (12 out of 24) that struck the board over that length had a’EP’ running fashion as nicely with others listed as pressers (‘P’), horses sitting just off the leaders at the first call.
Maximum Security qualifies on merit plus running fashion. I would also include Game Winner, Vekoma, Tax, Spinoff and Improbable as good value plays to hit the board on Saturday over a quick track.
[Three Kentucky Derby long shots worth a wager ]
Improbable is listed by Brisnet as a presser but he’s never been over two 1/2 lengths behind the leader at the first or second telephone. Nyquist was four lengths behind the leader at the first telephone from the 2016 Kentucky Derby and American Pharoah was just two lengths off the lead at the first telephone in 2015. Both won and Improbable looks like a winner here. In the very least, he’s well worth using as a key horse into your trifectas and superfectas.
Spinoff inherited almost three times as much velocity as stamina from his lineage (2.78 Dosage Index) and his early presser running fashion should have him in prime position to make a splash.
Vekoma has a comparable speed profile (2.56 Dosage Index) and his victory in the Blue Grass — which included a career high Brisnet pace figure (how fast he ran from the beginning to the second call) of 114 — is reason for optimism this Saturday.
Game Winner failed since the favored in his last two races but he’s hit the board in all six of his starts, never finishing worse than second. But Baffert has trained two Triple Crown winners in the previous three decades so that you will not ever be able to count one of his horses outside.
Tax might have to expend energy to get a cozy place on the rail but he’s three triple-digit Brisnet speed figures in a row using a new career pace figure (105) in his final prep, the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, which makes him an attractive overlay for the superfecta in 20-1 odds.
Win Win Win, By My Standards and Cutting Humor also deserve attention from superfecta wagers.
Win Win Win closed right into a quick pace during his second-place finish in the Blue Grass at April and also his pedigree sets up nicely for a sustained run at the traditional distance.
By My Standards establish a career-high Brisnet rate figure within his Louisiana Derby triumph (102) along with his trainer has a positive expectation for graded stakes races at 2019, meaning that a $2 blind wager on Bret Calhoun’s horses in these events could net you a 74-cent gain this season. Same for jockey Gabriel Saez (plus-$1.18 net profit on route races each $2 wagered in 2019), that has ridden this horse because his first career start at Churchill Downs in November of the this past year.
Mike Smith, Hall of Fame jockey and two-time winner of the Kentucky Derby, will replace Corey Lanerie on Cutting Humor. The dark brown colt must in contact with the leaders similar to his success from the Sunland Derby, allowing him to utilize his late kick to catch a bit of the plank.
With that in mind, this is how I would construct my trifecta and superfecta tickets.

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